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Australia’s falling inflation means interest rates have peaked? Don’t bank on it

Yes, consumer price growth has been on the skids since December and was only 5.4% in June. But beware inflationary clouds on the horizon

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For outgoing Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe, navigating the Australian economy along a “narrow path” between the perils of too-high inflation and a too-sudden slowdown has been the mantra for more than a year.

The June quarter’s lower than expected consumer price increases indicate the path may be widening slightly. The RBA, which left its interest rate unchanged in April and July, is strongly favoured to pause again at its August board meeting next Tuesday.

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