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Fears Australia underestimated Trump’s trade war after IMF slashes $13bn off forecasted growth

Grim outlook contrasts with Treasury modelling released by Jim Chalmers this month showing only ‘modest’ impact from US tariffs

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Treasury may be underestimating the threat posed by Donald Trump’s trade war, after the International Monetary Fund slashed its outlook for Australia’s economic growth in 2025.

Australia’s annual output will be $13bn lower in 2025 than predicted in January, the IMF’s latest forecasts revealed, with real GDP growth predicted to drop to 1.6%, from 2.1%.

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