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Poland election: first exit poll puts Law and Justice in lead but opposition coalition possible – follow live

Government expected to face close race with opposition led by the former prime minister and European Council president

Eyes on smaller groups

The final outcome could depend on how well three smaller groupings do. The leftwing Lewica and centre-right Third Way are expected to form a coalition with Tusk’s Civic Coalition if between them they can muster the 231 seats required to claim a majority in the lower house of parliament.

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