Scientists are closely monitoring 2024 YR4 – and while it’s relatively small, it reminds us of the dangers lurking in space
Carrie Nugent is an associate professor of computational physics and planetary science and author of Asteroid Hunters
Two days after Christmas, the Atlas sky survey team discovered a new rocky object in Earth’s astronomical neighbourhood. Atlas discovers near-Earth objects all the time: in 2024, the team discovered 167 of them. They also codiscovered comet Tsuchinshan–Atlas, which dazzled sky gazers last autumn. But this discovery was special: there’s a chance the 40-90 metre object, known as 2024 YR4, will hit Earth in 2032.
In January, the impact probability was estimated to be just over 1%, then it was raised to 2.3% in early February. As of this week, the Nasa JPL Center for Near Earth Object Studies has raised that to 3.1% – or about 1-in-32 chance of impact.
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