We can’t predict the future, but appreciating its uncertainties will make us happier

Coincidences are more likely to happen than we think – so we should expect the unexpected and avoid magical thinking

When the mathematician Dr Kit Yates sees a weather forecast predicting a 25% chance of rain, he packs an umbrella. When he meets someone who shares his birthday in a crowded room, he is not in the least surprised. And if he comes across an unfamiliar phrase, such as “the Baader-Meinhof effect”, he knows he is likely to encounter it again, very soon.

“One of the biggest things I learned from writing my book was that surprisingly unlikely things can and do happen, given enough opportunities,” Yates says, referring to his new book, How to Expect the Unexpected.

Continue reading…

About Author